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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2017–Feb 14th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day. Don't let your guard down with warm temperatures and sunny skies.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Change is coming on Tuesday evening and then wet on Wednesday into Thursday. TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with wet snow or rain beginning in the evening / High temperatures to +6 Celsius / Moderate southwesterly winds / Freezing level around 2600 m. WEDNESDAY: Rain (20-40mm in the South ; 40-60mm in the North) or wet snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level around 2400m. THURSDAY: Wet flurries changing to snow (10-25cm) / Moderate southwesterly winds / Freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday there were reports of widespread whoompfs near treeline on Northerly aspects in the Duffey Lake zone. Compression tests gave sudden results down 65cm on surface hoar. Click here to see this MIN post. We had reports of a remote-triggered Size 1.5 on a northwest aspect near 1750m just outside the Manning ski area on Saturday - skiers traveling along the ridgeline triggered an adjacent slope. Click here to see this MIN post.

Snowpack Summary

Last week we had 60-80cm storm snow (lower amounts in the north), which fell with moderate to strong southwest winds. The main concern right now in the Duffey zone is lingering storm and wind slabs, which have given moderate resistant and sudden results (down 30-40cm and also 60-70cm) in recent snowpack tests (see above for more information). On the Coquihalla, a temperature crust can be found up to 1800m and significant wind effect occurred at upper treeline and alpine elevations.The mid-December facets down 130-160 cm still remain a concern especially in shallower snowpack areas in the Duffey, Hurley and/ or South Chilcotins. These deeper weaknesses warrant monitoring, especially with rapid warming next week. In southern areas (Coquihalla), the lower snowpack is reportedly well settled (stronger), than it is to the north.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.