Regions
Northwest Coastal.
Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain for Wednesday night and Thursday. If more than 10cm falls, the avalanche danger may be higher than posted.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday
Weather Forecast
Generally light snowfall (5-10cm) is expected on Thursday. A dry ridge should develop on Friday bringing mainly clear skies while overcast conditions are forecast for Saturday. Ridgetop winds should be moderate from the southwest on Thursday and then become light for Friday and Saturday. Daytime freezing levels are forecast to hover between 1100 and 1200m for the forecast period.
Avalanche Summary
In the north of the region near Stewart, a few persistent and deep persistent slab avalanches to size 2.5 were reported on Tuesday. The avalanches were triggered by solar radiation or by large cornices falls. One of the avalanches (which was triggered by a cornice fall) occurred on a northwest aspect at about 1400m and is thought to have failed on the March 3rd surface hoar. The slab was 50cm deep, 40m wide and 80m long. New wind slab activity is expected on Thursday in response to new snow and strong winds.
Snowpack Summary
As of Wednesday morning, up to 5cm of new snow had fallen with moderate to strong southerly winds. At treeline and in the alpine small wind slabs are expected to have formed. These wind slabs overlie a variety of surfaces which include a hard crust on solar aspects above 1300, moist or refrozen snow on all aspects below 1300, and settled wind slabs in exposed high elevation terrain. A layer of surface hoar or melt-freeze crust buried on March 3 is down 50-80cm and has been on the radar of professionals in the mountains north of Stewart. A more widespread crust/facet layer buried in early February can now be found down over a metre. Both of these deeper layers have become less likely to trigger, but have the potential for large avalanches especially with a large trigger such as a cornice fall. I'd be increasingly cautious during periods of warming or solar radiation.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.