Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday
Weather Forecast
Tuesday: Very light snowfall with generally overcast skies / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1800mWednesday: Mix of sun and cloud / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1800mThursday: Light to moderate snowfall / Moderate west winds / Freezing level at 2100m
Avalanche Summary
Loose wet avalanches up to size 2 continue to be reported on solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Recent warm temperatures have created melt freeze conditions on all aspects below 2000m and to mountaintop on south facing terrain. Isothermal conditions as deep as 100cm have been reported on South aspects at lower elevations. On high north-facing slopes surfaces are well settled and surface hoar development continues in some areas. Cornices are huge!A layer of surface hoar or facets may exist up to 50cm below the surface, particularly in the north of the region. Triggering this layer has become unlikely, and would most likely require a large trigger or from a thin snowpack zone. Mid and lower snowpack layers are well bonded.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.