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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2013–Jan 16th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Wednesday-Friday: North-westerly winds. Freezing level is at valley bottom, with alpine inversions possible (parcels of warm air which could bring alpine temperatures close to 0). Light snow is possible on Wednesday and Friday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Recent northerly to westerly winds have left new wind slabs behind ridges and terrain breaks at alpine and treeline elevations. A weak interface (surface hoar, a sun crust or facets) buried in early January is of most concern on steep south to south-west aspects and below about 1700 m in sheltered areas. Snowpack test results on this interface vary from sudden to no results. Recent storm snow is fully settled in some locations, and still showing easy to moderate shears in other places. Watch out for rapid warming on alpine slopes over the next couple of days, which could weaken the slab above these interfaces. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack. Check out this YouTube video which demonstrates some of the weak layers and test results found around Valemount BC.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.