Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Monday: Overcast conditions with moderate to heavy snowfall developing late in the day / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200mTuesday: Moderate to heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1500mWednesday: Heavy snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1800mNote: The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall in the south of the region for the forecast period
Avalanche Summary
Windslabs to size 1.5 were skier triggered on steep, north facing slopes in the north of the region on Saturday. They were reported to have ran on surface hoar buried on March 9th. .
Snowpack Summary
A dusting of new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces which include: a crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects, faceted powder on shaded slopes, and surface hoar. The surface hoar, which was reported from the north of the region, has already been reactive in spots where it was buried by thin wind slabs formed by strong southwest winds on Saturday.Between 50 and 80cm below the surface is a layer surface hoar which was buried on February 20th. Although this layer has a history of producing large avalanches, triggering this layer has now become difficult, and would most likely require a very large trigger on a steep, unsupported slope.Below this the snowpack is generally well settled and strong.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.