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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 22nd, 2013–Mar 23rd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Avalanche danger may spike on slopes receiving direct sun. Avoid travelling on or underneath sun-baked terrain.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Sunny with light winds. Alpine temperature near -5, dropping overnight.Sunday: Cloud building during the day. Light snow, starting late in the day. Light winds. Alpine temperature near -4.Monday: Light snow. Moderate S winds. Alpine temperature near -4.

Avalanche Summary

Many skier-triggered and skier-remote avalanches of size 1-2.5 have been reported this week, with the bulk of events failing on the March 9th surface hoar layer down around 50 cm. Numerous other skier-remote (from up to 800 m away) avalanches of size 2-2.5 also failed just to the NE of the forecast region, on the same layer. A very large (size 3.5) avalanche was triggered in Cherry Bowl in the Shames backcountry on Sunday. Click here for a full report. These slides illustrate the ongoing potential for surprising, deep and destructive releases.Naturally-triggered wind slabs and loose moist avalanches have also been observed in response to wind loading/ sunshine.

Snowpack Summary

Recent new snow overlies surface hoar, crusts and old wind slabs. New wind slabs have formed lee to SW to NW winds. The surface hoar (buried March 9th; now down about 40-60 cm) is well-developed and fairly widespread at all elevations. Whumfing and remote-triggering of avalanches indicate that this layer is volatile. Professionals are taking a very cautious approach to terrain selection with this in mind. A second surface hoar layer, buried on March 18, is also problematic in some areas. The mid snowpack is generally well settled and strong. Cornices are large and untrustworthy, especially when the sun is out.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.