Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Mar 13 – 14, 2017Alberta Parks
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

An approaching storm may bump the hazard level up to HIGH. Pay attention to localized conditions. Loose wet avalanches are also possible if warm daytime temperatures and/or intense solar radiation occur.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3
    Wind slabs are widespread in Alpine and Treeline terrain on all aspects, but expect deeper slabs on lee and cross-loaded features. An approaching storm may add significantly to this problem.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–4
    Cornice collapses are triggering slabs up to size 3.5 on underlying slopes waking up the basal layers.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–4
    Any avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack could step down to the weak basal layers resulting in a very large avalanche. Recent events indicate that this is very possible (see avalanche discussion).

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will see the start of a warm and wet storm that could bring as much as 20cm by late Wednesday. Winds will be strong from the SW and freezing levels could reach 2200 to 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

A few naturally triggered size 2 avalanches were observed today in the Alpine on S, E and N aspects. Some of these were cornice triggered. Over the weekend a couple of very large avalanches occurred (up to size 3.5) which ran full-path and also destroyed areas of mature timber. These larger slides have been stepping down to the basal weak layers.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 5cm of new snow fell in the past 24hrs. Wind slabs are present at Treeline and above on all aspects and seem sensitive to human-triggering. Forecasters observed isolated cracking in steep and unsupported convex roles at Treeline today. The biggest concern is the weak basal layers that exist throughout the region. These layers just simply cannot be trusted and all larger features should just be avoided until we go through a few solid melt freeze cycles. Thin melt freeze crusts are being found on solar aspects up to 2400m.

Regions covered