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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2017–Feb 9th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

A significant storm Thursday will push the hazard level back up. AVOID avalanche terrain at upper elevations. AVOID all overhead exposure while traveling Below Treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A warm and windy storm is approaching that will bring up to 25cm of new snow through the day. Gusty SW winds could reach 85km/h. Friday will see light flurries, before a clearing trend moves in for the weekend.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control on Mt Buller and the East End of Rundle (EEOR) had variable results, with some loose dry and slab avalanches up to size 2.5. The most significant avalanches occurred on EEOR where significant propagations occurred in the recently formed wind slabs. No new natural avalanches were observed today, but field teams did get some cracking along a ridge crest between 2450 and 2300m while ski cutting.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has settled to between 50 and 80cm, which overlies a hard slab in Alpine areas and some Treeline features. This snow has been redistributed by strong winds, and wind slabs are now dominant on all aspects at Treeline and above. These slabs seem most sensitive to human-triggering in the Treeline elevation band. Snowpack stability tests today indicate easy to moderate shears down 35 and 55cm. Concern remains for the potential of an avalanche initiated in the upper snowpack to step down to the weak basal layers causing a very large and destructive avalanche.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.