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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 11th, 2017–Jan 12th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Finally looking like its going to warm up here moving into the weekend.  Fresh windslabs that are skier triggerable are easy to find right now.  Dont get lured into big terrain, conservative choices are a must.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Temps are forecast to slowly warm over the next few days and winds will increase out of the NW into the 26-50km/hr range at ridgetops.  No precip in the near future.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural avalanches on N and E aspects up to sz 2 were observed over the past 24hrs.  These slides were mainly in the alpine, but in a few locations they did run down into skiable terrain.  On one slide in the murray moraines area the slab was only 20-30cm deep but was surprisingly wide (100m)

Snowpack Summary

Variable wind effect in the Alpine, with pockets of fresh wind slab immediately below ridge-crest and in crossloaded features. The Dec 18th interface is buried 40 to 70cm at Treeline and remains a concern for human triggering. The Nov crust is buried up to 100cm deep and is exhibiting facetting both above and below the crust. At lower elevations (2100m and lower in some places!) the snowpack is weak and unsupportive due to prolonged periods of facetting.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.