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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2016–Dec 18th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The cold snap persists today but watch for changes with incoming weather. Warmer temperatures and new snow will raise the avalanche hazard significantly in the coming days.

Weather Forecast

Cold arctic air continues to dominate the weather pattern with today's temperature reaching a high of -21 in the alpine. Moderate NW winds will make it feel even colder. Temperatures begin rise Sunday morning with the arrival of a moist southwesterly flow. Expect accumulation amounts of 5cm for Sunday and 21cm for Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate southerly winds overnight promoted the development of wind slabs in the lee of ridges and alpine features. This new windslab buries previous hard wind slabs formed during the cold Arctic outbreak. In sheltered spots the top 20cm of the snowpack is mostly facetted and still unsettled due to very cold temps. November 13 crust is down 1-1.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Two natural size 2.5 wind slab avalanches were observed in MacDonald Gullies #7 and #10 on the north face of Mt MacDonald. Isolated wind slabs have been reactive to skier loads in the past couple of days.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.