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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 18th, 2015–Nov 19th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

80cm of new snow, strong winds, and warm temp's have created touchy slabs in the alpine and tree-line. Give the mountains some respect the next couple of days. Let the snowpack adjust to the new load.

Weather Forecast

A northwesterly flow has brought cooler, drier conditions to the region. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom for the next few days, with moderate to strong W/NW winds at ridge-top, and generally sunny skies.

Snowpack Summary

80+cm of storm snow, accompanied by strong S-SW winds, have heavily loaded lee features and aspects, forming deep slabs. New snow overlies a crust below 1700m. The November 11 surface hoar layer is present above 1800m with localized distribution. An isolated basal weakness is capable of large slides.

Avalanche Summary

An extensive natural avalanche cycle occurred during yesterday's storm. Numerous size 2-3 avalanches were observed from all aspects, several running full path to valley bottom.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.