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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2015–Jan 25th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Storm snow on existing weak layers means high avalanche danger. Give new snow time to stabilize. Highway avalanche control is planned in Rogers Pass today.

Weather Forecast

Precipitation will ease off today with a short period of high pressure. Southerly winds will remain strong and freezing levels will rise to 1800m.  A series of passing fronts will bring periods of light precipitation and gusting winds over the next couple of days.  Freezing levels are expected to spike on Monday reaching 2200m.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of new snow in the past 24 hours. Expect significant loading on lee slopes from strong southerly winds overnight. The Jan 15 surface hoar is buried 80-100cm and recent snowpack stability tests indicate it is likely to be triggered and propagate. The Dec 17 surface hoar/ crust complex is down 130-180cm.

Avalanche Summary

We are currently experiencing a widespread natural avalanche cycle from 40cm of new snow in the past 24 hours and strong southerly winds. Numerous natural avalanches up to size 3 were observed in the highway corridor during the overnight period. Avalanches are likely propagating on the January 15 surface hoar down layer down 80-100cm.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.