Avalanche Forecast
Jan 5th, 2019–Jan 6th, 2019
Alpine
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Regions: Cascades - West.
The Bottom Line: New storm slabs will grow throughout the day Sunday as another storm impacts the Central Cascades. If you see wind affected snow or experience snow higher than your boot top, these can be good signs to avoid open slopes greater than 35 degrees where you might trigger an avalanche.
Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion
At lower elevations, recent and significant liquid water will make travel challenging. Watch for glide cracks, exposed rocks and creeks, and expect a refreezing upper snowpack.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Weather models are uncertain about how much new snow will fall in the area, but it is likely that storm slabs will build through the day on Sunday. If you find more than 8 inches of new snow on the ground, you may be able to trigger storm slabs on open slopes greater than 35 degrees. You are most likely to experience these conditions in locations close to the volcano, at higher elevations, and in places where the wind drifted snow into thicker slabs. As the snow accumulates through the day avalanche danger will slowly rise.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 2
Persistent Slabs
The most recent layer of buried surface hoar continues to get deeper in the snowpack as snow piles deeper. This layer has been gaining strength and is becoming harder to trigger. Recent rain in the area further reduced the extent of where we expect this persistent layer to exists. You might encounter buried surface hoar 4 ft or more below the snow surface on N-E aspects above 5500 ft. Buried surface hoar can release on surprisingly low-angle slopes. If you plan to travel into higher elevation terrain, take the time to consider and discuss this low-likelihood but high-consequence avalanche problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 3 - 3