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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2016–Feb 22nd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

It feels like late spring in the valley and mid winter in the alpine.  Don't let the conditions at the parking lot lull you in to being complacent.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures remain relatively cool, with 10-15cm of snow forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning accompanied by moderate SW wind.  Skies clear by Saturday evening as the winds shift to being more westerly.  Cloudy skies return for Sunday afternoon as the trailing end of a weak front brings flurries and ongoing westerly wind into Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50mm in the past week, accompanied by warm temperatures and strong SW winds.  This has left in it's wake a well settled snowpack below treeline; a couple of buried crusts, down as deep as 30cm and 50cm (widespread below 2200m and extending into the alpine on solar aspects), and several layers of stiff windslab in the alpine and at treeline.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural size 1-1.5 avalanches occurred Thursday night into Friday morning out of N-E facing terrain at treeline, these are suspected to have been windslabs.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Another layer of fresh windslab will be created by Friday nights storm.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

While mostly stubborn to trigger, buried layers of old windslab over a couple of buried crusts have the potential for wide propagation.  Use a probe or a pole to test for the presence of these buried layers.
Avoid steep, open slopes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 3