Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells, St. Mary.
Continue to make conservative terrain choices and consider the consequences of a chosen slope avalanching. There is variability in the snowpack throughout the region but what is consistent is that the snowpack is shallower and weaker than average.
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
On Friday ski cutting produced small wind slabs on west, north and east aspects.
On Thursday a skier was caught in a small avalanche at treeline. This avalanche failed on a layer of facets in the upper snowpack. Check out the MIN for more details. A few other similar sized skier triggered avalanches were reported in the region. These other avalanches failed on facet or surface hoar layers in the upper snowpack.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
New wind slabs can likely be found on exposed treeline and alpine terrain on west, north and east facing slopes. As the freezing level falls the surface will develop a crust at lower elevations.
There are 2 concerning weak layers in the top meter of the snowpack. The first is a layer of surface hoar from early january and the second is a layer of surface hoar, facets and a crust from late December. Both these layers are most concerning at treeline. There is also a layer of facets at the bottom of the snowpack that will likely persist for a prolonged period of time.
In General the snowpack is shallow and weak.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Cloudy with flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southeast winds and a low of -7 at 2000m.
Sunday
Cloudy with flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light southerly winds and a high of -3 at 2000m.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with flurries bringing a few centimeters of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds and a high of -5 at 2000m.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light westerly wind and a high of -5 at 2000m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
- Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
There are 2 concerning weak layers in the top meter of the snowpack. The first is a layer of surface hoar down 20 to 40 buried in early January.
The second is a layer of surface hoar, facets and/or a crust may be found around 40 to 70 cm deep, which is a prime depth for human triggering. both these layers are most concerning at treeline and below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs will likely still be reactive to rider traffic on west,north and east aspects.
Be aware that wind slabs can step down to deeper layers.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
A weak layer near the base of the snowpack, buried in November, remains a concern despite lack of recent avalanche activity. Human triggering of this layer remains possible, especially in shallow areas with variable snow depths.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely
Expected Size: 2 - 3