Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Allow time for the new snow to bond before committing to bigger slopes.
Avoid thin areas where the deep persistent weakness will be closer to the surface and easier to trigger.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Numerous natural avalanches size 2-3.5 were observed through the hwy corridor on Monday running far into the runout zones. Natural activity has subsided in the wake of the storm but human triggering remains possible.
Snowpack Summary
40cm of new snow on Monday fell on a variety of surfaces (wind affect, sun crust and/or surface hoar), this sits over a generally strong snowpack however the basal weakness of rounding facets/decomposing crust persists near the ground and should not be left out of your decision making.
Weather Summary
Calm weather will prevail for the remainder of this week with light to moderate winds and no significant precipitation.
Wed: Cloudy w/ sunny periods and isolated flurries, Alp low -12*C, moderate west winds, freezing level (FZL) 1100m
Thurs: mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation, Alp low -13*C, variable light winds, FZL 1300m
Fri: Cloudy w/ sunny periods, no precipitation, Alp low -10*C, light south winds, FZL 1600m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
40cm of new snow sits over a variety of old surfaces (wind affect, sun crust, surface hoar). Slabs will be more reactive where they overly a crust on southerly slopes or in deeper wind loaded areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Deep Persistent Slabs
The deep persistent weak layer will require a large trigger to fail, a storm slab avalanche in motion could be enough to do this. An avalanche on this layer would be very destructive, likely run full path or further, and be of high consequence.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 4.5
