Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, Kananaskis, North 40, Spray - KLakes.
Snow is hopefully coming tomorrow. As tempting as it will be to rush out and ski, use caution as our snowpack isn't set up well for rapid loading.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
A few loose dry sluffs today in gullies. Triggered by winds.
Snowpack Summary
This soon-to-be formed storm interface will be very interesting to watch as our "storm" rolls through. Forecasters went out today to see what the current snow surface is like. What we saw from our limited trip was something to behold. As far as the surface goes, up to 2100m there's an exposed crust/wind skin/ice layer that isn't holding snow. Lots of loose dry sluffs today as winds moved the snow around. As for the mid pack and lower pack, the warm weather has helped create a hint of cohesiveness and support, but only a hint. We suspect that any loading won't be well received and a cycle will start.
Weather Summary
My achy knee tells me there's a storm a brewin'...
Forecasts agree that 7cm is expected by noon tomorrow. By tomorrow night there could be as much as 15cm!! Funny what qualifies as a storm these days. In other weather news, this is the beginning of another cold snap that will see temps in the -20 to -30 range by Saturday. Tomorrow, moderate winds will be gusty and coming at us from all directions until the cold air sinks in. -7 as a day time high tomorrow with cooling in the evening.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
- Be aware of the potential for surprisingly large avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
- If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Snowpack tests continue to indicate that human triggering of the deeper weak layers is a real possibility. Shallow rocky areas are particularly susceptible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3
Persistent Slabs
If triggered the persistent slab is very likely to step down to the deeper instability and involve the entire winter's snowpack. Pay close attention at treeline where this layer is more commonly found.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible - Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Wind Slabs
Winds will shift to the north just before the snow starts. Expect reverse loading. Also expect these slabs to be touchier around treeline.
Aspects: North East, East, South East, South, South West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 2