Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - North West.
Watch for possible loose wet avalanches and new small wind slab where there is significant new snow.
Detailed Forecast
A sharper shortwave will move north to south over the Northwest on Saturday. This will change flow from northwest to northeast and should cause light showers east of the crest Saturday with snow levels getting a little lower especially in the south Cascades.
The sun is getting stronger so small shallow loose wet avalanches also seem possible on Saturday on steep solar slopes where there is significant new snow west of the crest. This will be forecast from Stevens to the southwest zone but should be most likely from about Crystal to Mt Rainier where there will be the most new snow.
Where there is significant new snow west of the crest it also seems possible that northeast winds may build new small shallow wind slab on lee slopes. This should be mainly on unusual northwest to south aspects near ridges above treeline. But watch for this on other aspects as well due to the shifting and unusual winds. This will be forecast from Stevens to the southwest zone but should be most likely from about Crystal to Mt Rainier where there will be the most new snow.
Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.
Snowpack Discussion
A benign weather pattern with mild temperatures was seen in the Olympics and Cascades for about 10 days through Wednesday. This caused thick surface crusts and more consolidation of the snow pack west of the crest.
A weak short wave moved over a temporarily flattened upper ridge on Thursday causing showers west of the crest. Northwest flow and possible weak convergence helped maintain showers west of the crest on Friday. From NWAC weather station data and reports it looks like by Saturday there will be anywhere from about 3-7 inches of new snow near and above treeline from about Stevens Pass to Mt Rainier with the most from Crystal to Mt Rainier.
Pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise on Wednesday and reported some shallow softening on solar slopes, MF clusters throughout the snowpack and no instability. He was also at Paradise on Thursday and reported about 2 inches of initial new snow bonding well to previous snow and no avalanche problems.
The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest snow consists of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.