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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 19th, 2015–Jan 20th, 2015
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Reactive surface hoar layer with many rider triggered avalanches! The storm hit with strong winds and has slabbed up the snow. Combined with mild temperatures, the slab over the surface hoar layer will be more cohesive and propagation will increase.

Weather Forecast

Unsettled weather will persist into Tuesday with light snow and cloud. Temperatures are on a cooling trend and winds will be tapering down as a ridge of high pressure builds over the southern half of the Province into Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Close to 20cm of new snow overnight bringing recent storm snow to 45cm overtop the widespread Jan 15 surface hoar layer and crust on solar aspects. Expecting wind effected snow at higher elevations. The Dec 17 surface hoar layer is down 90-130cm overlying a crust below 2100m. The Nov 9 crust is a basal layer at the bottom of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Backcountry users and field teams reporting several remote and rider triggered avalanches to size 1.5 down 20-50cm running on the Jan 15 surface hoar layer. Cheops North 4,natural avalanche dusted two riders on the uptrack. Natural avalanche cycle up to size 3.0 within the highway corridor began yesterday afternoon and into early this morning.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

~50cm of new snow overtop the widespread Jan 15 surface hoar layer. This layer was very reactive to human triggering yesterday. Expect this sensitivity to continue with the storm slab that formed overnight with the sustained strong southerly winds.
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.Avoid freshly wind loaded features.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The new snow load or shallower avalanches could reawaken the Dec 17 surface hoar layer down 90-130cm. This layer is widespread at treeline, more spotty at alpine elevations and sits on a thick crust complex.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3