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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2017–Jan 18th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

An intense storm system brings new snow and warm temps to Roger's Pass.  This new snow will bond poorly to our weak snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Today expect cloud and flurries bringing 10cm of new snow. Temperature in the alpine should reach -5'C with Southwest winds to 20 km/hr. A series of Pacific storms will bring steady snowfall though Thursday, up to 40cms according to some models. Freezing levels will be on the rise aswell reaching 1600m on Wednesday before starting to cool on Friday

Snowpack Summary

15 cm of new snow has fallen in the last 24 hrs. Southerly winds to 45 km/hr have likely redistributed this snow at ridgetops. This new snow buries old wind slab in the Alpine and a surface hoar/facet combo at treeline and below. Due to the unusually cold winter overall, the snowpack is quite facetted and weak.

Avalanche Summary

In the previous week natural avalanche activity has been limited to steep, unskiable terrain. Expect this to change with the incoming storm.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

15 cm of new snow in the last 24 hrs falls with moderate S winds is building a new slab.  Steady snowfall over the next few days will add load to this developing slab which sits on a weak layer of facets and surface hoar. 
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Wind Slabs

This new snow buries, potentially hiding, an old variable windslab that can still be reactive. These slabs are variable in distribution so take time to assess slopes independently.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2