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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 15th, 2012–Nov 16th, 2012
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Wind slabs in the alpine are becoming reactive to human triggering.  The snowpack below treeline is still very thin, with many early season hazards.

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure will provide clearing skies today and Friday, with lingering valley fog.  A strong polar cold front will move in for the weekend, bringing unsettled weather, moderate snow accumulations, and moderate to strong winds.

Snowpack Summary

Touchy wind slabs have developed in the alpine, 20 to 50 cm thick.  A rain crust buried on Nov. 6 is now down 60cm from the surface.  This crust has the potential to become a weak sliding layer.  At lower elevations, snow coverage is very thin.

Avalanche Summary

Skiers directly and remotely triggered slab avalanches near Balu Pass yesterday on a NE aspect, resulting in partial burials with no injuries.  Several size 1.5 to 2.5 slabs were observed on very steep terrain east of the summit above the highway.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Skiers at Balu Pass yesterday triggered slabs ranging from 20 to 50 cm deep, running 70+ meters.  Warning signs such as cracking around skis were noted.  Avalanches were also triggered remotely in wind loaded pockets.
Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3