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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2016–Feb 12th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Steady SW winds overnight will have created new wind slabs for travelers to avoid.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy conditions today, with freezing levels holding near 1500m and winds dying down to light from the SW. Friday will see flurries becoming more organized with a sharp spike in snowfall by late afternoon. Freezing levels are expected to rise to 1800m with the snow, and winds will increase to moderate from the SW.  .

Snowpack Summary

10cm of snow overnight has been redistributed by mod SW winds, forming slabs in lee features at tree-line and above. Below the new snow, a thick crust exists on solar aspects from the warmth earlier in the week. N aspects stayed dry but still sported heavy snow. The Jan 4th is down 90-130 and was producing sporadic sudden planar results.

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity slowed yesterday to a few loose avalanches to size 2.5 in the highway corridor. A field team up on the Dome Glacier observed old activity from Tuesday's dramatic warm-up. South and west aspects were cooked from 1700m and above and numerous point releases to size 1.5 were observed.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Thin, touchy wind slabs are likely lurking in the alpine and at tree-line elevations. These will be easier to initiate if sitting on the crust from Tuesday's warm-up.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

The Jan 4 persistent weak layer now buried around 100cm down is still sporadically failing in snowpack stability tests. If this layer awakens the result would be large and destructive.
Avoid shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4