Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2017 4:16PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

mgrist, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Incoming Mango Express!!! Where it rains, watch out for loose wet snow; where it snows, watch out for storm slabs.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Big change is coming with a 'Mango Express' from the Philippines. We will shift to a more familiar warm and wet pattern on the South Coast... where umbrellas and rubber boots reign supreme!!! MONDAY: A mix of snow and rain (55mm water equivalent), with freezing rain more likely near Squamish mid-day. Winds light gusting to moderate from the southwest. Freezing level 1500m rising to 2200m and alpine temperatures to +2 Celsius. TUESDAY: Rain, and lots of it (80-120mm). Winds moderate to strong from the south. Freezing level 2700m and alpine high temperatures to +4 Celsius! WEDNESDAY: Still more rain (30-50mm). Winds moderate southwesterly. Alpine temperatures to +4 ; freezing level dropping slightly to 2100m.

Avalanche Summary

No new observed.

Snowpack Summary

We've had some sunshine and warm temperatures (as high as +6 on Grouse mountain on Saturday) through the weekend. Expect to find a lovely sun crust on solar (south) aspects. Earlier in the week, pockets of wind slab formed on exposed aspects at higher elevations. A thick crust can be found 5-10cm below the surface at treeline and below, and has limited the wind redistribution at lower elevations. The new wind slabs have already gained considerable strength but could remain reactive on steeper unsupported terrain at alpine elevations where this crust does not exist. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and stable.

Problems

Storm Slabs

The timing and intensity of the incoming system will affect how much snow (or rain) actually falls during the day... likely not enough to raise avalanche hazard significantly during daylight hours on Monday.

Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Loose Wet

If we see heavy rainfall, the snow will become loose and wet.

Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2017 2:00PM