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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 27th, 2018–Jan 28th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Glacier.

Recent moderate winds formed pockets of wind slab in the Alpine and exposed Tree Line areas. Human triggering of avalanches remains likely.High quality riding/skiing found in sheltered areas Tree Line and below.

Weather Forecast

Cloud with snow flurries for the day, up to 7cm of snow accumulation. Alpine high of -7, winds from the southeast 15-40km/hr. An atmospheric river has taken aim on the south coast and will push inland tomorrow afternoon and 'believe it or not', is forecasted to deliver over 65mm of precipitation by Tuesday... that could mean 70-100cm of snow!

Snowpack Summary

50cm of settling storm snow with 150cm of snow accumulation over the past two weeks. Expect to find pockets of wind slab along ridge lines and lee features due to the previous south winds in the Alpine. The Jan 16 surface hoar is down ~60cm, Jan 4 down ~80cm and Dec 15 down ~1m+ making for a complex sandwich of weak layers.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural avalanches size 2 observed along the highway.Test results showing the Jan 16 surface hoar (5-10mm) down ~60cm, fails suddenly and has a high propagation potential, which could result in large avalanches.No reports of avalanche activity in the backcountry. If you see anything, please submit a Mountain Information Network (MIN) report

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Previous moderate southerly winds have redistributed storm snow into pockets of wind slab. The slab will be most sensitive in lee areas at ridge line and exposed areas at tree line. If triggered, the slab could step down to deeper weak layers.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Persistent weak layers present a lower likelihood / high consequence scenario with the Jan 16th, 4th and Dec 15th surface hoar layers. These layers could be sensitive to human triggering in thin areas, or overloads from wind slab avalanches.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3