Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

THURSDAY:  Cloudy with variable snowfall amounts, accumulation from 2 cm in the west to 20 cm in the central and eastern parts of the region possible, moderate northwesterly winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 900 m.FRIDAY:  Mix of sun and cloud, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1400 m.SATURDAY: Partly cloudy, light northeasterly winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Widespread loose wet avalanche activity was observed on southern aspects at all elevations on Tuesday.  Some of these were stepping to basal facets in the north of the region where the snowpack is thin.

Recent warm temperatures and rain have produced a melt-freeze crust on most snow surfaces, except for possibly high elevation north.  New snow will fall onto this melt-freeze crust.  Strong easterly to southerly winds have redistributed any previously available soft snow and produced wind slabs in lee and cross-loaded features.  This overlies a sun crust on solar aspects and a surface hoar and sugary facet layer on sheltered, shady aspects.  A surface hoar and crust layer from January is buried around 80 to 140 cm. This layer still has the potential to be triggered from a thin snowpack spot, or with a large trigger like a cornice fall.Sugary facets exist at the bottom of the snowpack in steep, rocky, and shallow snowpack areas.