Regions
Vancouver Island.
Confidence
High - Forecast models agree, for now.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Seek low angle terrain and areas shelter from the wind. Ensure a wide berth when travelling either above or below cornices.
Avalanche Summary
On Tuesday explosive testing produced small results size one loose on a north east aspect at tree line . This feature was wind loaded and unsupported but did not perform as expected. No new natural avalanches observed.
Snowpack Summary
Variety of surface conditions as a result of strong predominantly north wind, exposed ridge top areas scoured to the valentines day crust and in protected areas the crust can be found down an average of 40 cm.The crust and new snow are bonding moderately well, The crust is thick and very strong, below this the mid and lower snow pack is settled and dense.
Snowpack Details
Surface: New low density snow. Upper: Melt freeze crust from 30 to 90 cm thick. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.
Past Weather
Cool temperatures, clear skies and moderate north west wind.
Weather Forecast
A mass of arctic air dominates the region with the occasional disturbance descending from the north bringing to the forecast area some light precipitation. Freezing levels and temperatures are expected to remain low. North winds will continue to be light to moderate. Wednesday: 0 to 5 cm new snowfall temps -12 to -4, winds moderate north west, freezing level 0 m rising to 800 m mid day. Thursday: no new snowfall temps -12 rising to +1, winds moderate west, freezing level 0 m rising to 200 m mid day. Friday: no new snowfall temps -5 to 0 winds light to moderate north west , freezing level 250 m rising to 1000 m mid day.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.