Regions
Vancouver Island.
Confidence
High - forecast models in agreement.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Identify safe routes when travelling either above of below cornices. Caution when entering areas with wind loaded snow. Observe temperatures and sky conditions as solar effect will have a rapid effect on destabilizing the upper snow pack.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche reports in the last 72 hours
Snowpack Summary
A well established melt freeze crust dominates the upper snow pack and can be found on all aspects and at elevations up to 1700 meters. The March 22 melt freeze crust can be found down from 15 to 45 cm and is producing hard resistant planar results when tested. Mid and lower snow pack is well settled and dense.
Snowpack Details
Surface: A well established melt freeze crust on all aspects and at elevations up to 1700 meters. Upper: Down between 15 and 45 cms the March 22 melt freeze crust can be found. Mid: Well settled. Lower: Well settled.
Past Weather
Cool overnight temperatures followed by warm and sunny days with only trace amounts of snow fall have been the weather story as of late. Saturday evening alpine temperatures dropped to below minus 7 and Sunday temperatures remained cool with very little sun exposure and mostly overcast and broken sky conditions.
Weather Forecast
Initially a cool and mostly dry northwesterly flow will continue to bring cool conditions and light north west wind with very little precipitation. A strengthening south westerly flow approaches the island region late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing to the forecast area moderate south east wind and moderate to heavy snowfall and rising freezing levels and temperatures. Monday: 1 to 5 cm new snowfall. Temperatures - 7 overnight rising to 1 mid day, winds light to moderate north west. Freezing level 200 m rising to 800 m mid day. Tuesday: 5 to 10 cm new snowfall. Temperatures -3 overnight rising to near 2 by mid day, winds moderate south west. Freezing level 500 m rising to 900 m mid day. Wednesday: 25 to 40 cm new snowfall. temperatures -5 rising to 2 mid day, winds moderate south east . Freezing level 700 m rising to 1200 m mid day.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.