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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2026–Apr 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Recent storms have created a reactive storm slab, this problem is most sensitive in lee features.

The sun will pack a punch the next few days, avoid overhead exposure to solar slopes.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to the track and intensity of the incoming weather system.

Avalanche Summary

In the Connaught valley Frequent Flyer & N Cheops 4 both avalanched naturally on Wednesday. Frequent flyer was a loose wet avalanche and was triggered by strong solar. N Cheops 4 was a slab avalanche that started at the top and ran onto the runout or fan.

Over the previous weekend several wet loose avalanches up to size 2.5 and a size 3 glide slab release were observed through the highway corridor.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 40cms of new snow sits on top of a variety of old spring-like surfaces. Anything from crusts to moist or wet snow depending on time of day, aspect and elevation.

A thick rain crust from the March atmospheric river sits 20-50cm below the surface.

Below treeline the surface varies from isothermal sticky snow to refrozen tree bombs and huge debris fields from the massive avalanche cycle in March.

Weather Summary

Generally clearing weather as the Low pressure system moves out of the region.

Tonight Flurries, Snow: 6cm. Alpine low -13°C. Wind NE-25 Km/h. Freezing level(FZL) Valley Bottom

Thurs A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high -4°C. Wind 20km/h gusting 40. FZL 1800m

Fri A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high -5°C. Wind: West 15-25km/h. FZL 1800m

Sat A mix of sun and cloud. Snow 0 cms. Alp High -1°C. Wind: 20km/h. FZL 2100m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Avoid travelling on slopes below cornices.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.