Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering avalanches on shallow and deeply buried weak layers remains possible. Numerous huge, destructive avalanches failed naturally on these weak layers in the past week. Sticking to lower angled terrain and avoiding shallow areas in the snowpack are the best ways to reduce your risk.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The snowpack in this area grew from toddler-sized to NBA basketball superstar heights in the past two weeks. The persistent weak layers (facets, surface hoar, and crust+facet combinations) below the recent storm snow and near the ground are widespread and are now 4-7 feet deep. This is a bit of a double-edged sword. While you are not likely to trigger one of these deeper slabs, the consequences of being caught in one would be severe.

    Dealing with deeply buried persistent weak layers challenges even the most experienced backcountry users. The snowpack probably won't provide you with signs of instability before it fails. One minute you are riding powder, and the next minute you are cascading down a slope with the entire season’s snowpack.

    Unfortunately, the only way to effectively manage this problem is avoidance; stay out of the terrain where the problem exists. If you're willing to dance with the proverbial dragon, steer clear of slopes where you see rocks poking through the snow. The odds of triggering a huge avalanche increases in shallow, rocky areas that allow you to impact the weak layer as well as in wind-loaded terrain. In the thinner areas, you may also be able to trigger 1-3 foot thick slabs on weak layers closer to the surface (see Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns forecast). 

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONLast night's snowfall and wind may have formed thin, isolated wind slabs near ridgelines in exposed terrain. While these slides should not be large enough to bury people on their own, there's a chance a small avalanche could trigger a larger, deeper slab as it travels downslope.  Local professionals observed this exact phenomenon Monday (photo here).

Avalanche Discussion

We have reached the dreaded “scary MODERATE” danger rating. Avalanche hazard is the likelihood of an avalanche impacting something of value — for our purposes, that thing is you. As the likelihood of an avalanche decreases, the avalanche danger also decreases. But, it gets tricky; while the likelihood of triggering a slide is decreasing, the consequences of getting caught remain the same. 

This scenario we're facing is commonly referred to as “low probability, high consequence,” or LPHC for short. LPHC events are tricky to deal with, in the backcountry and in life in general. You must decide what threshold of risk is acceptable. Picture Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry asking you:  "Did he fire six shots or five? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself...are you feeling lucky?" 

As you travel through the backcountry, recognize you are facing a LPHC problem. The best way to manage this uncertainty is to build wide safety margins into your travel decisions. Be aware of the terrain you are traveling in and underneath, and picture the consequences of being caught in a slide in that terrain.

Details from Wednesday's Avalanche Accident in Baker Creek:On Wednesday, January 15th, 2020, a snowmobiler was caught and killed in an avalanche in the Baker Creek drainage, approximately a half-mile northeast of Baker Lake. This video contains preliminary information collected during a site visit last week; a full accident report will be published in the coming days.

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