Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees that face NW-N-E-SE and a higher-end MODERATE avalanche danger exists in these areas. In addition, many of these same slopes have deep, potentially unstable wind drifts adding to the problem, and steep, wind drifted slopes should be avoided. We've seen a significant recent load on our snowpack and numerous natural avalanches occurred on a known persistent weak later. Let's give the snowpack more time to adjust before we venture into larger terrain.

As things heat up today anticipate a MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Most of the avalanches from the last cycle appear to have stepped down to a layer of weak, faceted snow near the ground, and human triggered avalanches such as this remain possible. on similar slopes that have not avalanched. The greatest concern is on wind loaded slopes that face NW-NE-SE near and above treeline. Thinner snowpack areas along slope margins or near rock outcroppings are likely trigger points. Wind loaded slopes should be avoided as should areas of rocky, more radical terrain. Bottom line is that we need a little more time for things to adjust before we strike out into larger terrain. Reduce your exposure by keeping your slope angles below 35 degrees.

    The following video of a propagation saw test illustrates the kind of avalanche problem we are dealing with.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Strong NW winds on Sunday transported snow forming deep, unstable drifts near and above treeline on many aspects. These windslabs are becoming more difficult to trigger, however, it is still possible to trigger a large avalanche in places where the slab thins such as slope margins, and near rocky outcrops. Take time to investigate the snowpack for signs of windslabs including smooth, lens-like shapes, hollow-sounding snow, or even just relatively-denser snow and avoid these areas.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    As things heat up today be alert to signs of loose, wet instability such as rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.

Special Announcement

The Geyser Pass Roadhas been plowed and is already melted down to the dirt in many sections. Patches of snow exist and it turns muddy as the day heats up. All-wheel-drive recommended.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) has no plans to groom.

Recent Activity

Chris and I got a good look around up in Gold Basin yesterday and observed more avalanches from the March 13-14 storm event. Most of the avalanches appear to have failed on a buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow deep in the snowpack. Though numerous, they weren't what I would call widespread. Most were either repeat runners or they occurred in thinner snowpack areas around rocks and in very steep terrain on slopes facing NW-N-NE. This avalanche on Noriega's Face was one of the more impressive.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 69" Wind NW 5-10 Temp 15F

Another warm, calm, and mostly sunny day is on tap as a ridge of high pressure is centered over Utah. We may say a few high and mid-level clouds later today with a shift in wind direction to the SW. High temps at 10,000' will be in the upper 30's. Clouds will increase tonight before clearing out tomorrow bringing another sunny and even warmer day. A weak Pacific trough will bring unsettled weather for the weekend.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

Better late than never, it's good to finally see a decent snowpack. Last weekend's storm event brought 2-3' to the mountains with more than 3" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). A major wind event on Sunday evening saw NW winds with gusts as high as 90 mph but surprisingly, the surface is not a wind-blasted moonscape and good powder can still be found on shady aspects. Most sun-exposed slopes will be crusted over today. Over the last few days, time and warm temperatures have helped the snowpack adjust to this large load but it still remains possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Wind drifted slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face NW-N-E-SE are the most likely areas to find trouble. Let's give it some more time before we step into larger terrain.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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