Conditions are dangerous. Snowfall totals are up to 33 inches for the last two days and 80 inches with 7 inches of moisture since January 1. Slides that ran in the Twin Slides and Glory Bowl avalanche paths closed the roadway over Teton Pass yesterday afternoon. At the lower elevations small slab avalanches released naturally on the southeast aspect of Saddle Butte. The snowpack will continue to struggle to adjust to this new load. Small to very large slab avalanches could be human triggered on steep slopes. Loose snow slides may also be human triggered in steep terrain and may release naturally and on sunlit slopes. Expert terrain evaluation skills and conservative decisions are essential for safe travel in avalanche terrain today.
At the mid and upper elevations soft slab avalanches one to four feet in depth are likely to be triggered by humans in steep wind loaded avalanche starting zones. At the lower elevations smaller slab avalanches one to two feet in depth could be triggered in steep wind loaded terrain features.
Very large slab avalanches up to six feet in depth could be human triggered on weak faceted snow near the base of the snowpack. This persistent weak layer has been most active on northwest to northeast slopes above 8,000 feet but can be found on other aspects as well. Being caught in one of these dangerous slab avalanches is likely to be fatal.
Expect cloud cover to quickly increase tonight followed by another round of snowfall spreading from the northwest to the southeast. By Saturday evening, another 6 to 12 inches of new snow could accumulate in the Tetons with a bit less in the other two forecast zones. Overnight lows in the mountains will remain in the single digits before rising into the mid-teens during the day. Westerly ridgetop winds will back to the southwest at 10 to 20 miles per hour.Avalanche conditions will remain dangerous in the mountains on Saturday, and the general avalanche hazard is expected to be Considerable. Skiers and riders entering steep, wind loaded avalanche terrain are likely to trigger recently developed wind slabs with depths of one to four feet, and natural activity could occur. These slabs are failing on old snow surfaces from the end of 2019 and on density breaks within the snowfall from the last storm cycle. It may also be possible to trigger a persistent deep slab avalanche. These very large avalanches could also step down from the release of a wind slab. Expert terrain and snowpack evaluation skills will be required for safe travel in avalanche terrain on Saturday, and plenty of great skiing and riding can easily be found in low consequence terrain. Moderate hazard is expected at the lower elevations. There, backcountry travelers could trigger pockets of wind slab one to two feet deep on very steep, wind loaded terrain features.
