Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist as snowfall continues, unrelenting. You can easily trigger an avalanche as natural avalanches are likely and human triggered avalanches are very likely. Stay out of avalanche terrain, including low angle slopes beneath avalanche paths while the storm runs its course. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    We are in the midst of a major storm cycle, the time when avalanches are most likely to occur. Avalanches were observed in the Heather Lake area off the Mountain Loop Highway on Thursday. Numerous observations of both human triggered and natural slab avalanches have come in from neighboring zones in the last 3 days, with conditions very similar to those in the West Central. Failures are happening on interfaces within the new snow layers, and some avalanches have broken all the way down to the 12/21 crust. By Saturday up to 3 feet of snow will cover this crust at upper elevations. 

    Winds will remain strong, contributing to thicker and more reactive slabs on leeward slopes and increasing as you gain elevation. Regardless, this much snow calls for travelling with extreme caution, and steering clear of all avalanche terrain including the runouts beneath steep slopes.

    Human triggered slab avalanche on a NE aspect at 4900ft in the West North zone on Thursday. Photo: Jake Little

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches occurred Friday as rain fell on the snow surface. These avalanches remain likely as snowline hovers around 4000-5000ft for much of the storm. Rollerballs coming off steep slopes are your first indicators that the snow surface is losing its strength, and avalanches may follow. Steer clear of steep lower elevation areas which have clues that the wet surface could slide.

    Rollerballs! Clues like this indicate the surface snow is becoming wet and unstable. Photo: NPS rangers

Avalanche Discussion

At least 3 inches of water has fallen since Wednesday, and another 2 inches will fall by the end of the day on Saturday. At upper elevations most water fell as snow, while Friday was a wet day with the snowpack shrinking at lower elevations. This much snow leads to very dangerous avalanche conditions, and a lot of uncertainty in regards to where and when failures will happen. Play it safe for the rest of the holiday period by staying in low angle terrain.  

Be aware of avalanche paths that cross roads and hiking trails, as there are many in the area.  Snow is quickly building at upper elevations, so avalanches will have a higher likelihood of hitting these routes- even if where you are has little to no snow cover. Do not linger in areas of distinctly thinner or smaller trees, especially if they look thinned for as far as you can see uphill, which could indicate an avalanche path crossing your travel route. 

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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