Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Icy snow surfaces, due to freezing rain on Tuesday,  create dangerous conditions for a long, sliding fall in steep terrain. Previously wind packed snow is now an impenetrable icy crust. A breakable crust exists on top of  areas where softer snow was sheltered from the wind. Additionally, the fresh snow that fell after the crust formed small wind slabs in some areas at a higher elevation. Though these  appear to be stable, they aren’t widespread enough to offer good skiing options. Area ski trails are also capped with a refrozen crust. If venturing into steep terrain, bring an ice axe, crampons (actual crampons, not just microspikes) and consider roping up on lower angled terrain than you ordinarily would. The odds of successfully arresting a fall with an ice axe is diminished in these hard, icy conditions.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    The storm on Tuesday produced a trace of snow early with freezing rain falling at the tail end of the storm. With freezing rain capping the earlier snowfall, and 100mph winds drifting and wind packing the afternoon snow, wind slabs created from the new snow were isolated and stubborn. Smaller and more reactive slabs may be tucked into more wind sheltered locations in the terrain and on steep, narrow drainages at mid elevations. Keep in mind that even a small wind slab resting on an icy surface could lead to a long, sliding fall.

    2021-02 Snow that fell after the freezing rain event packed into stiff, unreactive slabs such as this below South Gully in Huntington Ravine.

Avalanche Discussion

We just passed through one of the more active periods of snow and avalanche problems that we’ve had for some time, in part due to the absence of a typical January thaw that resets the snowpack. Unfortunately, the freezing rain and warm temperatures on Tuesday have locked up the upper snowpack and spoiled everyone's powdery fun on skis in the backcountry. If you shift gears to ice climbing or mountaineering, keep this crust on your radar. It is an unforgiving surface that kills many more people in our range than avalanches. What would ordinarily be a harmless fall on stiff snow on a 30 degree slope can turn fatal in these icy conditions where self-arrest techniques simply do not work. Rope-up early and have your gear and technique completely dialed before venturing into the alpine. 

You may have noticed that the persistent slab avalanche problem is gone from the avalanche problems. This doesn’t mean that you won’t find faceted snow anymore. In fact, to the contrary, the new ice crust is likely to cause continued temperature and vapor pressure gradients that drive even more faceting. But without a snow load on top, there is no real avalanche problem so it’s off the list. Near crust faceting may be something to look at in the near future but the primary problem will likely be new snow blown into wind slabs which struggle to bond with the freezing rain crust. Our most recent bed surface and weak layer in our largest avalanche paths at middle and upper elevations ran on the smooth, wind-packed layer built by the wind event on January 24th that reached 157 mph on the summit of Washington. Perhaps the recent thaw and subsequent refreeze will change that.

More avalanche deaths occured yesterday and Tuesday in the western US. Information on all US avalanche fatalities can be found here with details and accident reports appearing as they are submitted to the CAIC.  An interview with Simon Trautman of the National Avalanche Center on the recent cluster of fatal avalanche accidents can be found here.  

Thanks to everyone for taking the time to submit all the observations of snow and avalanche conditions, both inside and outside our avalanche forecast area. Please keep them coming. 

Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

Thursday, February 18 @ 7PM - Avalanche Awareness talk with Pat Scanlan: Stealing from the Ski Guides Toolbox - A Free Zoom Webinar

The Harvard Cabin is open for camping only with no entry allowed inside the cabin. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

  • Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
  • Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.

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