Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist at all elevations today.  New snow and winds have built storm slabs that may be upwards of two feet thick above treeline on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain.  These slabs may break wider and further than expected and has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers leading to a larger more destructive unsurvivable avalanche.  Faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to remain a concern. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    7 to 10 inches of new snow combined with moderate to strong SW winds have built dangerous storm slabs on all elevations and aspects.  These slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces and may not be bonding well to the old existing surface.  At upper elevations on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain, these slabs could be a couple of feet thick may propagate wide distances wrapping around terrain features.  Steep slopes that have 10" or more of new snow will be most dangerous and should be avoided.

    Pay attention to cracking and collapsing and avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees today.  Storm slab avalanches may be large on their own but could step down into deeper weak layers creating very large unsurvivable avalanches. 

    Photo from 2/13 right at the start of the storm. With more snow and winds building storms slabs on firm hard crusts from last week's strong winds.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    New snow and wind will provide another big test to the faceted persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Near and below treeline terrain have shallow weak faceted snowpack with newly formed storm slabs resting on top.  It's in this terrain that skiers could still easily impact these weak layers and with a new load may be reaching a tipping point on its own or may just need you as a trigger to get these weak layers to collapse and fail. Open and exposed terrain at higher elevations have deeper snowpacks and stiffening slabs from last week's wind events. Faceted weak layers continue to linger deeper down in the snowpack but may be harder to impact unless you hit a likely trigger point where the slab is thinner on the margins or near rock outcrops. 

    In observations yesterday from above treeline, we were observing a concerning small-grained faceted weak layer just below the most recent harder wind slab that now buried under a foot or two of new snow.  We were finding this weak layer to be reactive in extended column tests.     

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like loud audible whumf's and shooting cracks.  Remotely triggered avalanches from below or adjacent slopes is a possibility with avalanches breaking wider than expected.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper than 30 degrees today as we may see large avalanches running long distances.

     

    Multiple faceted weak layers exist in the snowpack, with some closer to the surface. The weak faceted snow closer to the ground continues to remain a concern.

Avalanche Discussion

The much anticipated Valentine's Day storm has arrived bringing 7 to 10 inches of snow with about .7" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  SW winds have been sustained in the 20 mph range with gusts in the 30 to 40's.  Continued snow showers today could bring an additional 1 to 3 inches with winds shifting to the SE. We've seen an uptick in avalanche activity with any significant storm and loading event this season and today should be no different.  With intense snowfall amounts and strong winds, natural avalanches are possible today and human triggered avalanches are likely.  

With a busy holiday weekend and new snow, it'll be tempting to want to go chase powder as skiing and riding conditions have improved greatly.  Don't let your guard down today and get lured into steeper terrain.  Although we didn't reach the threshold for an avalanche warning today, dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Continue good travel techniques, always being aware of your surroundings and not regrouping under steeper slopes above.  Low angled terrain is a great way to stay stress-free and enjoy the powder. 

Early reports this morning are wide propagating storm slabs avalanches on the leeward side of ridgelines. These slabs have been building on a variety of different surfaces from crusts to previous wind hardened slabs making for a good bed surface and the ability for avalanches to run long distances.   

Before this storm, many slopes below and near treeline terrain consisted of a shallow weak snowpack with faceted layers near the ground slow to heal and still reactive in long column tests. Winds and new snow have built cohesive slabs that will stress these weak layers and provide the necessary slab needed to communicate propagation across a slope.  These slopes will become increasingly suspect today into next week.  I suspect we'll see an uptick in avalanche activity in this terrain, where avalanches could take the entire season's snowpack with it.    

Open wind-exposed slopes at higher elevations have deeper snowpacks with stiffer harder slabs on the surface from last week's wind events. In observations yesterday, we were finding a concerning faceted layer just beneath these harder surface slabs that now have recent storm snow on top. Deeper buried facets closer to the ground continue to linger and have been slow to heal.  As we saw during the last avalanche cycle at the end of January, large to very large avalanches are possible at these elevations.  These avalanches can break wide and deep often times wrapping around terrain features and running long distances.  

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