Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Recent strong winds transported snowfall from the past week, forming fresh, stiff wind drifts and stressing buried weak layers. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in terrain exposed to the wind - be careful. You can dramatically reduce your risk of getting caught in an avalanche by sticking to slopes that are completely sheltered from the effects of the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Two large, natural avalanches released yesterday or Monday night in wind-loaded, south-facing terrain just north of Galena Lodge (view observation). Strong winds in the past couple of days moved snow onto many slopes, stressing the  weak layers near the ground and in the upper half of the snowpack:

    1. In the upper 2-4 feet of the snowpack, multiple interfaces have produced avalanches and unstable test results recently. In this zone, these layers appear to be worst on slopes that face the sun, where they are accompanied by a crust. 
    2. Depth hoar exists near the ground on all aspects. This is the snow that we've been talking about all season long and seem destined to talk about for the remainder of the season. This layer is buried 4-6 feet deep here, making it much more difficult (but not impossible) to trigger.

    On Friday, Ben and Chris visited the site of an avalanche fatality in Smiley Creek (photo to right/below, details here). This avalanche failed on a crust + facet layer buried underneath a dense, 3-foot thick slab. In Beaver Creek, the same layer failed cleanly during snowpack tests and likely produced a recent natural avalanche. Sunday, a skier in the Alturas Creek drainage experienced a very loud collapse, and an observer reported a recent, large natural avalanche that failed on a southeast-facing slope in alpine terrain in the Sawtooths on Monday. 

    Given the uncertainty surrounding these weak layers, skiing or riding in "prime-time" avalanche terrain remains risky. You are more likely to trigger an avalanche on wind-affected slopes steeper than about 35 degrees, but these weak layers exist in sheltered terrain as well. I'm especially leery of SW-S-SE facing avalanche paths where we have the "double whammy" of a crust+facet layer about 3 feet down and recent wind-loading; think long and hard before skiing or riding those slopes.

    (2/19/2021) Photo of a very large triggered avalanche that resulted in a fatality on Friday, February 19th, near the head of Smiley Creek. The snowmobile track of the victim is visible in the center of the photo. The avalanche released on a south aspect at 9100'.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Expect to find wind slabs near ridgelines and lower on slopes in exposed terrain. Tuesday near Copper Mtn, professionals reported that small wind features were reactive to ski cuts, and they avoided very steep avalanche paths and all wind-loaded starting zones. Also Tuesday, professionals in the mountains near Smiley Creek reported extensive wind-loading in exposed upper and middle elevation terrain. 

    You could find the recently formed wind slabs near ridges, on the sides of cross-loaded gullies, and lower on slopes near prominent terrain features. Watch for dunes, scallops, and textured snow surfaces. While these features may not produce shooting cracks like classic drifts and slabs, they are clear signs the wind has transported snow. Owing to the near-vertical nature of the Sawtooths, the wind also tends to blow snow down cliff faces where it accumulates in spindrift slabs on the aprons below. Wind slabs should be most sensitive to triggering on slopes over about 35*.  

    Recognize that the recent wind event also added stress to the weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack (described in Problem 1 above). Any wind slab you trigger could step down to these deeper layers, producing a much larger, more dangerous avalanche.  You can greatly reduce your risk of triggering an avalanche of any variety by sticking to slopes that are sheltered from the wind.

     

     

    (2/23/2021) Active wind transport on McDonald Peak in the southern Sawtooth Mtns Tuesday afternoon. Note the shiny crusts on the SE aspect on the left of the photo.

Avalanche Discussion

PUCKER FACTOR: AN AVALANCHE FORECASTER'S "TIEBREAKER"

Assigning avalanche danger ratings is not an exact science. LOW and HIGH danger days are usually obvious, but choosing between MODERATE and CONSIDERABLE can be difficult for forecasters, especially when facing certain avalanche problems. The expected avalanche size and likelihood play a large role in determining the avalanche danger, but we do not have an algorithm that spits out the correct danger rating after plugging numbers into it. If only it were that simple! When we're "on the fence" between danger ratings, we weigh the danger ratings' travel advice heavily to choose a  level; how will we be traveling through terrain today? Will we consider entering starting zones? Or crossing avalanche tracks? Or riding sleds or skinning up in runout zones? 

I have my own personal "pucker factor" chart that basically describes how scared or comfortable I would be traveling in avalanche starting zones/tracks/runout zones when facing various avalanche problems. In our two central zones (Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns and Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns), the nature of the persistent slab problem still has me puckered. Recent natural avalanche activity - check. Recent wind loading - check. Poor snowpack structure - check. A high degree of complexity and uncertainty - check. For today, that's enough checked boxes to continue to keep me, the other SAC forecasters, and most local avalanche professionals out of all sizeable or consequential avalanche paths over 35 degrees and all wind-loaded slopes over 35 degrees. That's my tiebreaker between CONSIDERABLE and MODERATE. 

Are you likely to trigger large avalanches on all slopes today? No. Many slopes have stabilized to the point that triggering them is unlikely. The problem: with the dramatic effects of the recent wind event, I'd need a pack full of explosives to determine which slopes are relatively stable and which are teetering on the edge. Facing that degree of uncertainty, I'm too puckered to risk my life in steep, exposed terrain for now.  

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