Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist today, but there are a couple of things to watch out for in your travels. Below treeline is your most likely place to experience wet snow avalanche concerns. Watch out for punching into wet snow as we just barely dipped below freezing last night at these elevations. Near and above treeline on North through East aspects, there is a remote chance to trigger a persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers around crusts that have 2 to 3-foot stiffening slabs on top.     

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Snow from last week has settled and stiffened into 2 to 3-foot slabs that rest on top of facets that have formed around melt-freeze crusts and harder wind-packed surfaces during the high-pressure period prior to the storm.  These faceted weak layers were the culprit of several large natural avalanches earlier in the week. As we move further away from the significant loading event, it's become unlikely, but not impossible to trigger one of these big persistent slab avalanches. Likely trigger points will be on the margins of the slab and near rock outcrops where you're more likely to impact these weak layers. These weak layers are found in the top 100 cm of the snowpack, and you can quickly dig a snowpit to assess if these faceted weak layers exist before committing to a slope. Consider the consequences, if you were to trigger one of these bigger avalanches, as a persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous.

    1 - 2 mm facets around crusts have 2 to 3-foot slabs on top from last week's storms. These weak layers continue to show signs of being reactive in stability tests.

Avalanche Discussion

It was another night of a poor refreeze below 10,000' with temperatures just barely dipping below 32 F. Today will bring somewhat of a cooling trend from what we've seen the last couple of days with temperatures just getting into the low 40's at lower elevations. Partly cloudy skies and strong winds should help keep warming at bay today. SW winds should stay breezy and have been 20 - 30 mph overnight with gusts in the 60 mph range early this morning.  It's somewhat of a transition day, as a storm approaches the four corners later today bringing light isolated rain/snow showers at periods today with accumulations at less than 1 inch. 

Wet snow avalanche concerns should only be below treeline, where warm temperatures and intense sun the last couple of days have warmed the snow allowing water to start percolating down deeper in the snowpack.  Without a refreeze last night, water is able to penetrate deeper either pooling on crusts or creating wet facets that can create bigger avalanches.   In your travels, if you notice, you're punching in the snowpack over your boot-top in wet snow, consider heading to higher elevations where we've had colder temperatures.  

Ski and riding conditions are less than desirable right now, with crusts on solar aspects and wind stiffened surfaces above treeline. Thankfully, we shouldn't have to wait long for riding conditions to improve as it looks to be an active weather week. As we officially move into spring, it looks like winter's not done with us yet.   

 

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