Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Conditions remain dangerous, especially in the western portion of the zone. Triggering a large avalanche is likely on most steep slopes. Skiers and riders should choose low-angle terrain that isn't threatened by steeper slopes above. People have remotely triggered avalanches—from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes—each of the last four days. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    The storm earlier this week added more load to our well-established persistent weak layer that is now buried around 1-2 feet deep in this zone. A cycle of natural avalanches occurred, and remotely-triggered avalanches have been reported each of the last four days (photo from yesterday). Observers continue to report collapsing and/or cracking of the snowpack.

    There hasn't been significant loading for several days, so are avalanche conditions becoming safer? The answer is an emphatic "No". There are two important points to consider: 1) the buried weak layer is especially bad, and 2) this weak layer has been very slowly loaded over the past three weeks. These factors, especially in combination, have produced an instability that will be long-lasting and unpredictable—especially in the western portion of this zone where more recent snow has fallen. Even as we head into a period of more stable weather, I wouldn't be surprised if people are triggering avalanches a week from today.

    If we throw human behavior into the mix, one could argue that conditions are becoming more dangerous. As time goes by and the obvious signs of instability diminish, it requires more and more discipline to choose appropriate terrain—read more on that in the Forecast Discussion below. We urge backcountry skiers and riders to continue to choose low angle slopes and to pay extra attention to the terrain they're "connected" to. Remotely triggering an avalanche from below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes remains a very real possibility.

    WIND SLABS: A spell of moderate winds yesterday created small wind slabs on some exposed slopes. These new drifts are adding more weight to the persistent weak layer, and triggering one could step down deeper to become a much bigger avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

As we make a plan for a day of backcountry skiing or riding, it's helpful to establish a "mindset". Our mindset sets the tone for the day's terrain selection. Did we just get a big storm, requiring us to dial it back in from previous days' choices? Are conditions stable and it's a green light for steep terrain? Are we heading into an unknown snowpack, requiring us to start from scratch with our assessment? Once in the field, it can also serve as a double-check on our decisions: "Why are we considering this steeper slope when we said we were stepping it back today?"

Employing a "strategic mindset" has become common practice for professionals and advanced recreational skiers and riders. The approach was first described by guide Roger Atkins in 2014—you can read more about it here. One of the mindsets he outlines—and one that is not commonly used—is Entrenchment. For better or worse, entrenchment describes our current situation to a tee.

Entrenchment is the mindset we have when a well-established persistent instability exists, and it's expected to change very slowly over time. We're "stuck" making the same conservative terrain choices day after day. As time goes on, much of the easily-accessible, low-angle terrain becomes tracked, or we get bored and start itching for more challenging skiing and riding. Discipline is needed to make consistently good terrain choices day after day, and sometimes week after week. 

But, as they say, recognition is half the battle. The entrenchment mindset reminds us that this is the snowpack we have, and it's best to accept it. Rather than chomp at the bit each day, we can settle into a routine of enjoying the low angle skiing and riding that is available to us. And don't forget that almost any day riding in the backcountry—however mellow—is better than even the best day at work!

Be sure to check out Ben's Weekend Update to catch up on what happened this past week. Spoiler Alert: It was an exciting week.

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