Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

While triggering an avalanche is unlikely, snow professionals and experienced skiers and riders continue to be wary of the snowpack in this zone. Use extra caution on very steep, rocky slopes—especially where the snowpack is thinner (less than about 4 feet thick). Thin, isolated wind drifts exist in wind-exposed terrain. Though small, these may be large enough to knock you off your feet and take you for a ride if you encounter them in the wrong terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The persistent weak layers that have produced avalanches all season long are most concerning to me in the upper elevation terrain of this zone. These layers of weak snow are overlain by dense, hard slabs of snow, which makes impacting these layers more difficult. The warm temperatures and lack of recent loading have given these layers some time to begin the process of healing. But I'm a long way from trusting them.

    Many snow professionals and experienced skiers and riders have largely avoided consequential avalanche terrain at upper elevations in this area all season long. The weak layers here have behaved unpredictably on a number of occasions and I'd expect them to have more surprises in store for us. There is still a chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche on steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes (see example above/right). This sort of terrain exists across a significant portion of the upper elevation terrain in this zone.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION:Thin wind slabs formed during yesterday's storm. You are most likely to find these slabs near exposed, upper elevation terrain, along ridgelines, and in gullies. Though small, these slabs may be sensitive to your weight today. Be alert to the consequences of being caught and carried in even a small slide in the terrain you are traveling in. 

    There's still a small chance of triggering a persistent slab avalanche, primarily in terrain like shown in the photo—very steep, rocky, and wind-affected. Pole Creek area.

Avalanche Discussion

AVALANCHE DANGER

The avalanche danger scale is an imperfect tool. There, I said it. But the shortcomings of the scale aren't necessarily a problem related to the danger scale itself, they are natural outgrowths of the problem at hand. When we rate the avalanche danger for a given zone we are trying to describe the wide range of snow and avalanche conditions you will encounter over a roughly 800 square mile area, using just a single word. When you think about it this way it should come as no surprise that the danger scale has its shortcomings.

As avalanche forecasters, we use the avalanche danger scale because it is a way to quickly convey information about the backcountry snowpack to our users. But, it isn't the only tool we use. The avalanche problems give you an idea what type of issue you should be thinking about, and the graphics next to the problem help you understand where the problem is most likely. Personally, I spend the great majority of my forecasting time writing text that is intended to help you understand what you might find out there. So, while the danger scale is a good starting point, it shouldn't be your end point. 

One thing that isn't communicated well with the danger scale is the element of uncertainty or unpredictability that exists in an area. This can be a very important piece of information for a person traveling in the backcountry. As we see danger dropping to LOW in almost our entire area it is easy to find yourself thinking that conditions are the same everywhere. But, this isn't the case. There are places in our forecast area where I just can't convince myself are a good idea to go right now. This isn't because I think triggering an avalanche is much more likely there, its because there is a level of unpredictability that I'm just not comfortable with. The thought of entering big, open bowls peppered with rocks in the alpine terrain of the Boulder, White Cloud, and Pioneer Mountains makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

What is it about this terrain that is so concerning? Thanks to a combination of wind and a lack of snowfall, the snowpack in these areas has stayed relatively thin all season long. A dense, stiff slab is sitting on top of the weak snow that has plagued us all season, and thin areas in the snowpack allow a skier or rider better access to this weak snow. These aren't the only places this combination exists, but they are the first that come to mind. If you find yourself looking down past your ski tips at this type of terrain today I challenge you to prove to yourself why entering that terrain is a good idea. If you feel comfortable with your knowledge of how the snowpack will behave, by all means, have at it. The early season snow in our area has behaved unpredictably all season long, creating large avalanches with small loads and producing slides many days after loading. For me, this unpredictably has me playing on the conservative side of things in areas with this sort of snowpack. 

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