Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Steer around steep, wind-loaded slopes near and above treeline, give cornices a wide berth, and stay on the lookout for signs of instability like shooting cracks and fresh slab avalanches. Loose wet avalanches may be easily triggered at lower elevations with warming temperatures by mid-day.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Wind slabs may still be reactive on Monday, although probably becoming more stubborn at this point. You may places outside of wind affected snow where the storm snow is poorly bonded to recent sun crust or other recent interfaces (See discussion below). Shooting cracks or hollow-sounding snow are signs you could trigger an avalanche on similar slopes. Use small test slopes and hand pits to check for instabilities in the upper snowpack. Avoid wind-loaded, leeward slopes 35 degrees and steeper, and slabs could be deeper and more dangerous at upper elevations. Steer around obvious wind features, thickly loaded areas, and unsupported features such as convex rollers. Keep an eye out for overhead hazards such as cornices. If they break they could create large avalanches or pack a punch as it is.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The warm temperatures may create wet loose avalanches on all aspects below treeline on Monday. If the sun is out where you are, expect these to happen on steep slopes that face toward the sun most readily. Moist, sticky snow and rollerballs are good indicators that the snow is capable of producing these. Get off of steep slopes at lower elevations by mid-afternoon to avoid this problem.

    Example roller balls, signs that you could trigger loose wet avalanches on steep slopes nearby.

Avalanche Discussion

We're in for a fairly significant warm-up on Monday. This adds uncertainty to a snowpack still settling with lots of recent storm snow. Stay observant, and keep your eyes peeled for signs of instability.

A large (D2.5), fresh slab avalanche was observed on Saturday on Mount Benzarino. It started at around 6,700ft on a steep southeast aspect and was roughly 200ft wide. We don't know what this avalanche ran on, but in nearby zones we've been finding the sun crust from February 25th to be problematic, and responsible for ski triggered avalanches. On Friday, observers noted a very stormy day, with lots of wind drifting snow. Observers had a close call when a natural avalanche dusted them with a powder cloud from the Cutthroat slide paths on Highway 20. On February 22nd, a strong storm created a widespread, natural avalanche cycle up to size D3 in the area. Most of these were above treeline near the base of cliffs, though some may have been in wind-sheltered terrain. One notable slide was 1-2ft deep and propagated 300ft across. It appears that all avalanches ran within the recent snow or at the interface of new and old snow. 

Persistent slab avalanches are unlikely but could not completely impossible. You are most likely to encounter the structure responsible for persistent slab avalanches in the shallower eastern mountains, and in places that appear heavily wind loaded. Check out Drew's observation from Wolf Creek on Friday. Be sure to check out the forecast for the East Central zone if you are traveling to the southern or eastern edge of this zone for more details on the crust/facet persistent weak layer that is problematic there. 

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources. Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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