Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard in the West Central Mountains is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects today.  Firm crusts and weak layers at the old snow surface,  and buried in the upper snowpack were widespread prior to the storm that has dumped 22 inches of snow over the last 3 days.  Storm slabs up to 2.5 feet deep, and wind slabs on all leeward terrain should be expected on any slope over 30 degrees.  Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY today and natural avalanches are POSSIBLE today.  Additional snowfall and warming temperatures will continue to stress the snowpack through the day today, don't be the added stressor that tips the scales.  Avoid steep terrain, and keep your eyes on your partners as you enjoy the deep snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    The storm that entered our area Tuesday is continuing to add depth to our snowpack.  Local ski resorts reported close to 2 feet of new snow.  Snowtel sites at 6500 ft recorded 1.5-1.8 inches of new snow water equivalent(SWE)added to our snowpack since Tuesday.  A combination of slowly rising temperatures and wind throughout the day yesterday allowed the slab to become somewhat cohesive forming a soft slab in the new snow.  It also allowed for subtle density changes in the new snow layers that were failing in our pit tests yesterday. This soft slab is resting on a variety of bed surfaces that the new snow is not bonding to.  The rain crust from the 1/12/21 storm, sun crusts, and a combination of surface hoar and near surface hoar formed the surface of the snow at the beginning of the week.

    Collapsing,  whumphing and cracking have been very widespread.  With additional snow accumulations forecasted throughout the day today, and rising temperatures, it is a VERY good day to stay off of and away from slopes over 30 degrees. 

    Safe travel and mellow terrain choices are cheap insurance right now. 

    Full block ECT propagation (ECTP14SC) above the degrading ice crust. N aspect near Tamarack Resort on 1/27/21.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds are forecasted to calm today but high winds over the last 72 hours have created wind slabs on many aspects.  The winds swirled around and have loaded, and cross-loaded upper elevation slopes in unusual ways. These winds were able to easily scour the soft snow from the windward aspects leaving a polished crust and deposit that snow on E, NE, N, NW, and some W facing slopes.   Watch for stiff drifts and wind slabs on leeward terrain even well below the ridgetops.  Avoid natural terrain traps like gullies, east/west ridges, and bowls that are catching the blowing snow right now.  Pay attention to the consistency and density of the snow under your skis, sled, or moto while you travel through different terrain.  A sudden change in the surface of the snow is a good indicator of wind slab formation.

      

     

    Cracking and collapsing were widespread yesterday and Wednesday. Some cracks were able to propagate 100's of feet away from our skis.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–3

    Our persistent weak layers are getting a good test right now.  Recently formed crust layers, surface hoar, and near-surface facets were just buried under the new snow. Cracking, and collapsing(whumphing) are widespread right now in these layers.  Older weak layers are now buried much deeper in our snowpack and were still reactive in our pit tests prior to the storm.  These layers were most prevalent in shady, wind-protected areas.  If you trigger even a small avalanche in the wrong area right now, it has the potential to overload, or step down into the deeper layers we have been watching over the last 2 weeks.  This is a much denser slab than the storm slab above and has much more potential to cause injury or death if triggered.

    Sensitive test slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

There are multiple buried weak layers and crust/facet combinations in the upper portion of our snowpack right now. The addition of new snow and windblown snow on these layers is providing in your face warnings to avoid steep terrain.  Don't ignore red flags like cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches in any terrain right now.  Stick to low angle slopes in the backcountry and do not travel without avalanche rescue gear and solid partners.  

If you see or trigger avalanche activity, please take the time to snap a picture and note the approximate elevation and aspect, you can submit an observation on our website. Getting your info helps forecasters and other users get a better picture of the conditions throughout our mountains.

*Also, Please be mindful of other users, and where you are at. There are closures for motorized travel in and around the local ski areas, Granite Mtn, and other areas throughout our region.

***Check out the Winter Travel Map to find out where you can shred on your sled or moto.