Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 25th, 2017–Mar 26th, 2017

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Remember snow can lose strength very quickly on sun exposed slopes. Watch for overhead hazards and stick to supported terrain with low consequence.

Confidence

High - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Sunny in the morning then clouding over around noon, light south wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.MONDAY: Isolated flurries with trace amounts of snow, light southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.TUESDAY: Scattered flurries with another 2-4 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, numerous small human triggered avalanches were reported in the top 20-30 cm of storm snow on northerly aspects above 1800 m. Most were size 1-1.5, but a few size 2 slabs were reported as well. Sluffing was reported in steep terrain. Explosive control produced a size 1.5 cornice chunk that did not trigger a slab on the slope below. On Thursday, several size 1.5-2 wind slabs were skier triggered and a natural cornice release triggered two pockets of deep slab in extreme terrain. Explosives triggered 6 cornices up to size 3, but only one these cornices triggered a slab. On Sunday, morning sun is a potential trigger for cornice falls and deeper weak layers. Read the forecasters blog (here) for advice on how to manage this low probability, high consequence scenario and check out the accompanying photos (here). Also expect the recent snow to settle into a slab that will be most reactive at higher elevations, especially in wind loaded terrain and on steep convexities.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of new snow overlies a rain crust below around 2000 m or a sun crust on solar aspects at higher elevations. Alpine wind has recently been strong mainly from south through west directions and has loaded leeward slopes in exposed terrain at treeline and in the alpine. Large cornices are also reported on northerly aspects in the alpine. The rain crust which formed last week is now down 40-50 cm and generally seems to be well bonded to the surrounding snow. The February weak layers are down 120-150 cm and woke up during the recent storm cycle with many avalanches stepping down. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches and cornice falls have stepped down to these layers recently resulting in very large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.