Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Mar 25 – 26, 2017Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Remember snow can lose strength very quickly on sun exposed slopes. Watch for overhead hazards and stick to supported terrain with low consequence.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Cornices on northerly aspects are large and may become weak when hit by the sun.
  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–4
    Sustained sun exposure or heavy triggers like a cornice falling could trigger deep, destructive avalanches on buried weak layers.
  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Ongoing incremental loading is building slabs which may sit over a rain crust or sun crust. These slabs are most reactive in wind loaded terrain.

Confidence

High - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Sunny in the morning then clouding over around noon, light south wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.MONDAY: Isolated flurries with trace amounts of snow, light southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.TUESDAY: Scattered flurries with another 2-4 cm, light southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, numerous small human triggered avalanches were reported in the top 20-30 cm of storm snow on northerly aspects above 1800 m. Most were size 1-1.5, but a few size 2 slabs were reported as well. Sluffing was reported in steep terrain. Explosive control produced a size 1.5 cornice chunk that did not trigger a slab on the slope below. On Thursday, several size 1.5-2 wind slabs were skier triggered and a natural cornice release triggered two pockets of deep slab in extreme terrain. Explosives triggered 6 cornices up to size 3, but only one these cornices triggered a slab. On Sunday, morning sun is a potential trigger for cornice falls and deeper weak layers. Read the forecasters blog (here) for advice on how to manage this low probability, high consequence scenario and check out the accompanying photos (here). Also expect the recent snow to settle into a slab that will be most reactive at higher elevations, especially in wind loaded terrain and on steep convexities.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of new snow overlies a rain crust below around 2000 m or a sun crust on solar aspects at higher elevations. Alpine wind has recently been strong mainly from south through west directions and has loaded leeward slopes in exposed terrain at treeline and in the alpine. Large cornices are also reported on northerly aspects in the alpine. The rain crust which formed last week is now down 40-50 cm and generally seems to be well bonded to the surrounding snow. The February weak layers are down 120-150 cm and woke up during the recent storm cycle with many avalanches stepping down. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches and cornice falls have stepped down to these layers recently resulting in very large avalanches.

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