Confidence
Fair - Timing of incoming weather is uncertain on Friday
Weather Forecast
Friday: Moderate to heavy snowfall starting on Friday afternoon. 10-15cm, with 20cm possible on western slopes. Freezing level at valley bottom for most of the day. Winds increasing to strong westerlies by afternoon.Saturday: Snow continuing, with a further 10-20cm expected (most in the southern part of the region and on western slopes). Freezing level rising briefly to around 1000m on Saturday morning. Westerly winds.Sunday: Light snow. Freezing level valley floor.
Avalanche Summary
Explosives testing triggered many size 1-3.5 slabs in the central Purcells. All of the observed avalanches failed within the storm snow, with the exception of a couple of avalanches started by large cornices dropping onto the slope. In these cases, one failed at ground/glacier ice and one on a facet layer.
Snowpack Summary
Recent storm snow is settling slowly with cold temperatures. Winds have recently created slabs in exposed features. The mid-December surface hoar/facet persistent weakness, now down around 50cm on the eastern side of the range and as deep as 180cm on the western side, is still causing operators concern, especially in shallow snowpack areas. Recent snowpack tests show moderate to hard, sudden planar results on this layer. The consequences of a failure on this layer would be large. Facets and depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.