Avalanche forecast

Galena Summit & Eastern Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Triggering a large avalanche on weak snow deep in the snowpack has become unlikely, but unlikely and impossible are two different things. This problem is at its worst on very steep, rocky, wind-affected slopes. Be on the lookout for small wind slabs formed by recent snow and wind.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow near the ground forms the base of the snowpack in many places in this zone. This remnant snow from October exists on shaded slopes (NW-N-NE-E) at middle elevations and most slopes at upper elevations. We are two and a half weeks out from a significant loading event in this zone and the chances of triggering a large avalanche involving this snow have gradually decreased with each passing day. However, many experienced backcountry travelers and local professionals continue to give slopes with this snow at the base of the snowpack a wide berth. Even though I love playing in the steep terrain that exists in much of this zone, I'm happy to count myself amongst that group. If I were to go out looking for this problem today, this is the type of terrain I'd head for:

    • Steep: slopes about 35 degrees and steeper
    • Rocky: slopes with variable snow cover due to the roughness of the terrain
    • Wind-affected: slopes where strong winds produced variable snow cover due to scouring and loading

    If you go into terrain that looks like what I just described it isn't likely that you are going to trigger a large avalanche. But it is a long way from impossible. The choice of what type of terrain you enter on any given day is up to you, but it is important that you are honest with yourself about the types of risks you are taking by doing so, no matter how unlikely they may be. For me personally, I'll be continuing to avoid the terrain in this zone where this problem exists.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION  As days pass without significant loading, the recent batch of wind slabs has become less reactive. However, If I headed out skiing or riding in upper elevation terrain in this area today I'd still be paying attention to these slabs. These slabs are sitting on a few different weak snow surfaces such as facets, crusts with facets, and surface hoar. These types of weak snow are slow to heal and can cause avalanches days to weeks after they have been buried.

Avalanche Discussion

PLAYING THE GAMEDealing with persistent slab problems like the one that exists in this zone is just plain hard. Not to mention frustrating. We don't have a lot of experience with these types of problems in other aspects of our life, but driving provides a close analogy. On any given day, your chances of hitting an elk or encountering a drunk driver on the highway are low. You can drive for a long time and never have a problem. But that doesn't mean that you aren't risking the chance of having a problem when you hop in your car. The same is true with a snowpack that looks like the one that exists in this zone. You are far more likely to not trigger an avalanche than you are to trigger an avalanche. But that doesn't mean that you aren't taking a risk if you enter avalanche terrain here.

I like to describe this as "Playing the Game". On any given day, when we enter avalanche terrain we are playing the game. On very dangerous days our chances of encountering large avalanches is high, and we are taking on enormous risks by playing the game. On days when the snowpack is stable and there are no weak layers we are taking on more risk just driving to the trailhead or in the act of skiing or riding than we are due to avalanche hazard. When we choose to play the game with buried persistent weak layers like the one that exists here we are, to some extent, just rolling the dice. Its hard to be certain how many sides that die has, but there is a losing side. If you are unlucky enough to have that side appear the consequences will be high. The choice of whether or not you want to play that game is up to you, that is part of the beauty of being in the backcountry in the mountains. Just be sure you know what sort of games you are playing out there and the risks associated with them. 

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