Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today with a variety of potential avalanche problems. Unstable areas of new and wind drifted snow are your primary concern. The new snow will also be susceptible to the effects of strong sun and warm temperatures, and loose wet avalanches will be possible on sun-exposed slopes as the day heats up. The new snow load has also created the potential for human triggered avalanches to step down into older weaker snow on steep, shady aspects. Be alert to signs of instability and approach all steep terrain with caution today.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The recent snow has landed on a variety of slick crusts and weak snow surfaces, and both soft slab and loose sluff avalanches remain possible on steep slopes on all aspects today. Utilize test slopes and look for cracking in the snow surface as a sign of instability. The strong sun and warm temps today will hit the fresh snow when it's most vulnerable, so also be alert to the potential for loose, wet avalanches as well. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and actual loose, wet avalanches. Stay off of and out from under steep, sun-exposed slopes if they become wet and sloppy.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Northwest winds overnight picked up enough to blow and drift snow, primarily in the upper elevations. Today, be on the lookout for fresh, unstable drifts along the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features and avoid steep slopes with smooth, pillowy looking deposits of wind drifted snow. In some areas, a triggered wind slab may have the potential to step down into buried, weak, faceted snow causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Prior to the recent storm, the snowpack had deteriorated into a pile of non-cohesive loose, weak, sugary, facets. In some areas, crusts of varying strengths and thicknesses are overlying this weak snow, while in others, the snowpack was completely unsupportable. I'm uncertain to what extent the new load has affected the underlying weak snow, but the ante has been upped a bit, especially with the additional weight from wind loading. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to have to assume that the potential for human triggered avalanches involving buried weak snow exists. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, shady slopes facing NW-N-E. Collapsing or whumphing in the snowpack is a definite sign of instability.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: Grand County plowed yesterday.

Grooming Report: Trails are covered in fresh snow.

Recent Activity

I've received a few reports of loose snow sluffs within the most recent snow.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 13" Base Depth in Gold Basin UK Wind NW 10-20 mph Temp 14F

Weather: It's going to be a bluebird powder day in the mountains. The Sunday night storm brought 10" of new snow during an unprecedented period of light SW winds. Skies yesterday were mostly cloudy with partial clearing late in the day. Overnight, NW winds picked up 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 30. They'll back off a bit today and shift back to the SW. High temps will be in the mid 30's. We'll see dry and warming conditions through the week, with the next Pacific trough entering the picture around sometime Sunday-Monday.

Snowpack: Needless to say the new has greatly improved conditions.Underneath, however, the old snow surface consists of a variety of crusts and textures and you will still be able to feel this in some areas. Many surfaces are slick and hard and they will provide a good sliding surface for the new snow. Near-surface faceting in sheltered areas will also provide a weak interface. I'm uncertain how the new snow load will affect the non-cohesive, faceted snow farther down, but I have to assume it may be possible to trigger an avalanche down into this buried weaker snow.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').

General Announcements

Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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