Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Wind Slabs are the primary avalanche concern today on all aspects especially near tree line and above where danger is MODERATE.  Evaluate snow and terrain carefully for denser wind deposited snow that may be sensitive to a human trigger.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Over a foot of dense new snow fell Thursday night, and up to 6” during the day yesterday.  Periods of VERY strong winds even at low elevations have shifted back and forth during this time. NW winds are expected to gust into the 40mph range today. Watch for areas of denser wind deposited snow on slopes of any aspect in the mid-30° range or greater especially near ridgelines and sidewalls of gullies.  While concern is greatest for near tree line and above, finding a sensitive wind slab below tree line could also be  possible. Watch for cracking around your skis, blowing snow, and do your own localized assessments before committing to consequential terrain.  Wind slabs could range from very sensitive to quite stubborn today and could be large enough to bury someone.    

Avalanche Discussion

Despite the existence of weak faceted layers of snow near the ground in many areas and pit tests that continue to show propagation potential, we haven’t seen or heard of any evidence of avalanches failing on these deeper weak layers for over a week and a half since intense wind loading caused a natural avalanche in Hollywood Bowl on Feb 3rd.  We were concerned that the 1-1.5”+ of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) that fell since Thursday may have been enough to re-active these layers of concern especially in areas of heavy wind load, but that hasn’t been the case. Thus we are once again dropping the Persistent Slab concern from our problem list.  Triggering a Persistent Slab avalanche at this time is not impossible, but it is very unlikely. Never the less it is important to keep the existence of these deeper weak layers in mind as reminders to continue to practice safe travel protocols by exposing one person at a time to consequential terrain.    

RECENT OBSERVATIONS:

-2/13 - Mammoth Area – Punta Bardini: New snow, winds, ECTP

-2/13 – Mammoth Area – Sherwins: New snow and snowpack

-2/13 – Mammoth Lakes Basin below: New snow, small cracks in wind deposits.

2/12- Mammoth Area- Natural avalanche activity in the Sherwins

2/12- Mammoth Area- Natural avalanche activity in the Sherwins

2/12- Mammoth Area- Weather and snowpack observation from the Punta Bardini area

2/12- Mammoth Area- Sensitive wind slabs on Sherwin Ridge

2/12- Mammoth Area- Weak Structure in the Sherwins 

2/12- Convict Area- Intentionally triggered Wind Slab avalanche

2/12 - Convict Area- Wind transport, natural avalanche activity, and snow conditions

2/12- Rock Creek - Surface instabilities

2/12- Bishop Area- Table Mountian snow and weather conditions

2/12 -Bishop area- Natural avalanche, near the batch plant bowls

2/12 -Bishop area- Natural avalanche activity

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