Avalanche forecast

Northwest Inland

Feb 15 – 16, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Recent light to moderate accumulations may be sensitive to human triggering, particularly in the north of the region in higher, wind-exposed terrain. Wind slabs may take extra time to strengthen due to underlying surface hoar or crusts.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Forecast warming and sunny breaks will increase the likelihood of loose wet and wet slab avalanches. Wet avalanches can be pushy and entrain mass quickly.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A dry ridge of high pressure will maintain a mix of sun and cloud for Monday and Tuesday. A weak trough will bring increased cloud and light snowfall on Wednesday evening. Winds should remain mainly moderate from the west-northwest. Freezing levels should hover around 2000m on Monday and Tuesday, and then jump to about 2800m on Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, loose wet avalanche activity to size 2.5 was observed. With forecast warming and solar radiation, I would expect ongoing loose wet activity with the potential for wet slab avalanches and cornice failures.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region, generally light amounts of new snow overlie a hard crust which extends to about 1800m. This melt-freeze crust is adding considerable strength to the snowpack, although warming may weaken the crust allowing for surface avalanches to fail more easily. About 20 or 40cm below the surface you may find weak surface hoar which was buried on February 10th. It is unclear if recent warming has destroyed this potentially weak layer. I'd dig down and test for this layer, especially at upper elevations where colder temperatures may have allowed for this weakness to persist. In general, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well-settled. Further north in the region, freezing levels have generally been lower during recent storms. In these areas, new wind slabs are also a concern and deeper persistent weaknesses are more likely to exist.

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