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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2017–Feb 19th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

Generally safe avalanche conditions are expected at Hurricane on Sunday. Take care to avoid an uncontrolled fall on steep slopes with a smooth surface crust. 

Detailed Forecast

Moderately increasing south to southwest alpine winds and a couple inches of snow is expected at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday. Temperatures shouldn't change much again on Sunday.

This should bring a minor avalanche danger increase on Sunday.

Watch for small areas of shallow, firmer wind transported snow on potential lee slopes mainly above treeline. Alpine winds at the tail end of the last storm and on Sunday will have be mostly should be south to southwest so north to southeast aspects will be indicated.

Underlying wet snow especially at lower elevations should continue to drain and refreeze.

Be mindful of the hazards associated with an uncontrolled fall on steep slopes with a smooth surface crust. 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

Yet another atmospheric river arrived Tuesday night, bringing another round of heavy rain to all forecast elevations in the Olympics through Thursday morning. The storm total rain amounts at Hurricane Ridge was over 2.5 inches by Thursday morning. This weather caused lots of consolidation and the formation of surface crusts as temperatures began to cool at the tail end of the storm.

A slow cooling trend began Wednesday night through early Thursday, but only light showers occurred with little to no new snow accumulations at Hurricane Ridge by Thursday evening. The previous wet snowpack re-froze and formed a very hard, firm rain crust, with very little to no new snow above.

A fair day was seen on Friday with light winds and no precipitation. This happened to produce some nice corn skiing on south facing slopes.

Light winds and light amounts of snow are seen at Hurricane on Saturday.

Temperatures haven't changed much on Friday and Saturday.

Recent Observations

NWAC pro observer Matt Schonwald traveled to the Hurricane Hill region Friday. A hard, slick surface crust made travel precarious early Friday before the sun and warming began softening the crust. The few inches of snow fell during the tail end of the storm had bonded well and filled in many rain runnels, helping to smooth surface conditions. There was little evidence that the latest rain event produced any avalanches. The main hazard in the Hurricane area appeared to be an uncontrolled fall on the slick crust.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.