Avalanche Forecast

Fair weather should be seen Tuesday with light winds and little change in temperatures.

These conditions should allow for continued gradual decrease in avalanche danger as recent wind and storm slabs further settle and further stabilize. 

Recently formed wind slab should further stabilize on Tuesday.  Wind slabs are most likely on SW-NW-NE aspects due to recent E-SE winds. Watch for recent wind effects near and below ridgelines and avoid steep slopes with obvious signs of recent wind loading.

Storm slabs should become more stubborn to trigger Tuesday. Head for lower angle slopes if you encounter denser snow over weaker storm snow.

Although we won't list it as avalanche problem watch for wet snow avalanches on steep solar aspects if the sun is out in the afternoon.

Weather and Snowpack

An arctic air mass was over the Northwest with fair, cold weather the 2nd week of January. Surface hoar and near surface faceted crystals formed in wind and sun-sheltered areas during this period. Recent observations helped confirm we aren't dealing with layers from this period.

An atmospheric river moved over the Northwest about 1/17. Heavy rain was seen up to about 5500 feet in the Hurricane Ridge area. Three day precipitation totals through about Thursday were about 2.5 inches at Hurricane Ridge. An avalanche cycle likely occurred in the Olympics during this period.

The NPS rangers reported a storm total of 15 inches of lower density snow at the Hurricane Ridge manual snow plot Thursday morning. Showers continued during the day Thursday, but our precipitation gage didn't record any precipitation after 9 am, possibly due to equipment problems. About a foot of snow fell at the Waterhole NRCS Snotel over a 24 hour period ending Friday morning. 

A very pleasant day Saturday allowed temperatures at Hurricane to reach the freezing mark. Showers late Saturday and another band Sunday deposited about 4-6 inches of new snow as of Sunday afternoon at Hurricane, with strong S-SE winds.

Recent Observations

On Wednesday NPS personnel reported debris in the Old Faithful track down to the Hurricane Ridge road at 3500 feet. Debris piled up 10-15 feet deep in this narrow slide path.

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald, was at Hurricane Ridge Friday. Matt found 10 inches of settled recent storm snow generally well bonded to the underlying rain crust and not reactive. SE winds were forming shallow wind slabs on lee slopes near treeline. The recent rainfall had penetrated well into the snowpack. At a limited number of test sites, the 12/17 PWL was found to be rounding and unreactive in snowpit test and well over a meter down. We feel comfortable removing the persistent slab from the avalanche problem list moving forward.

A report from Klahane Ridge on Sunday indicated wind loading to N slopes at 6000 feet. Rain had penetrated to 1 m in the snowpack and the 12/17 layer was bonded and difficult to identify.