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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 2nd, 2015–Feb 3rd, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Olympics.

Shallow storm slabs are possible on lee northerly terrain above treeline Tuesday. 

Detailed Forecast

Another weak front will bring light rain and snow to the Olympics on Tuesday. Snow levels should fluctuate around 4000 feet. Only light amounts of new snow are expected however. Any earlier snow since Sunday may have bonded poorly to surface crusts on northerly aspects above treeline, allowing shallow storm slabs to develop. Also, watch for any wind transported snow, mainly near exposed ridges.

The avalanche danger Tuesday will be relegated to aspects and elevations with sufficient snow cover. 

Snowpack Discussion

Mostly very mild and sunny weather last week continued to deplete the Olympics already meager snowpack. A frontal system on Sunday and another weaker front Monday brought some light rain and snow to the Hurricane Ridge area. 

There is currently not enough snow near and below treeline to present any avalanche danger. 

The latest observations in the Hurricane Ridge area were from Jan 25th, by pro-observer Katy Reid, venturing out toward Mt. Angeles to observe one of the few above treeline areas accessible from Hurricane Ridge. She found snowdepths averaging 40-80 cm on N aspects with a few drifts above 1 meter. Snow cover was patchy, only a few hundred feet below the ridge, even on N facing slopes. This snow was well bonded consisting of melt forms and crusts and did not pose an avalanche problem.

 

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1