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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2019–Feb 14th, 2019
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

Storm slabs may become more sensitive to human triggering Thursday as temperatures rise. This forecast is based on very little snow falling on Thursday, if storm snow starts to exceed 20 cm, the hazard will bump up to considerable at all elevations.

Confidence

Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The current weather pattern is rather complex, and the weather models are not in agreement, so take this weather forecast with a grain of salt.WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, around -10 C in the alpine, light south/southeast wind, no significant snowfall expected.THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level rising to 1600 m, light to moderate south/southeast wind, precipitation beginning in the afternoon, 2 to 10 cm expected. 10 to 20 cm possible Thursday night.FRIDAY: Overcast, freezing level at 600 m, light south/southeast wind, 5 to 10 cm of snow possible.SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 600 m, light variable wind, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday there was a bit of small (size 1) loose dry activity, but these were not running very far. Over the weekend, small size 1 wind slabs were reactive to skier traffic.

Snowpack Summary

The South Coast mountains have picked up 25 to 40 cm of new snow over the past few days. Winds have likely formed fresh wind slabs in wind exposed features. The new snow rests on a variety of wind affected surfaces from scoured to wind-pressed to stiff old wind slabs that were formed during a previous extreme wind event. The new snow may be resting on isolated pockets of facets in sheltered locations. Below that, the snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

25 to 40 cm of recent storm snow is settling and stabilizing, but there may still be stubborn old wind slabs in the alpine. The warming temperature trend Thursday may make storm slabs more sensitive to both natural and human triggering. 
Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.The recent snow is now hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2